“While not precise, this estimate does
indicate that the level of expenditure is substantial,” Levin states in the
paper’s conclusion. “It is also apparent that expenditures are growing and
the market is shifting within the various elements of the market.”
Levin prepared the report under a contract
with the EPA’s Indoor Environments Division. Dated June 2005, it was
submitted last month to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which is
scheduled to process the report and publish it this year.
Of the nine different categories of IAQ
services recorded in the report, the two most lucrative – duct cleaning and
the abatement of asbestos and lead –yield an estimated $4 billion apiece,
according to industry sources Levin references in the report. Each of the
next three most financially significant sectors of IAQ expenditures garners
over $1 billion, the report says.
Levin notes that the grand total estimate of
$15.9 billion in expenditures among all nine categories is not inclusive of
some aspects of the IAQ industry whose figures could not be ascertained.
Because some dollar amounts are not divulged to the public, such as those
for undisclosed payoffs for insurance and litigation claims related to
indoor air, Levin was not able to figure them in his estimates, one factor
why the total number could be higher – or lower – than his estimate.
Levin further admits in the report some
specified figures are “soft” considering other factors. For example, a $3.4
billion estimate for building-remediation expenditures factors in spending
made in the commercial, institutional and multifamily residential sectors –
and provides separate breakdowns for each building type – but does not
include any remediation expenditures in single-family residential buildings.
The estimate for remediation expenditures
“covers mostly remediation of HVAC systems and contaminant removal,”
according to the report. The figure was derived from 2002 research by George
Benda and also on data provided that same year by the National Energy
Management Institute.
In addition, Levin’s conclusion outlines
another broad category he says “would certainly increase the total amount
spent substantially” if an estimate were attainable. This category, he says,
incorporates the wide variety of “products and services routinely used to
control indoor air quality such as mold removal and air freshener products.”
The $4 billion estimate for residential and
commercial duct cleaning is based on the results of an informal survey of
members of the National Air Duct Cleaning Association released in 2004. The
asbestos abatement figure includes residential and commercial work, while
the lead abatement work includes only receipts in the residential sector.
Sources for these figures include a 2004 report by the U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban Development and an EPA guidance document on asbestos from
1979.
The fourth-most lucrative category, which
Levin labels in the report as “consultant services for IAQ problem
investigation, diagnosis and resolution,” rakes in $2.1 billion each year.
This figure includes consultant investigations and diagnostic services but
does not include in-house diagnostic services or in-house response to or
resolution of complaints, according to the report.
At $1.5 billion, air cleaning and improved
filtration comprise the fifth-most lucrative category. The figure takes into
account sales figures provided by major manufacturers of residential
air-cleaning units and replacement filters and also assumes “a few hundred
million”dollars consumers rack up on energy costs to operate the machines in
their homes.
Much of Levin’s report focuses on spending in
categories describing various services available to consumers, rather than
IAQ products. The category devoted to air cleaning and improved filtration
is the only category specifically describing product sales.
A spokesperson for Honeywell International
Inc., which sells a wide variety of IAQ products, told IE Connections
last month that the corporation does not release sales figures for its
individual product lines although it does disclose divisions’ net sales in
its annual financial reports.
Levin calculates the total for all nine
categories referred to in his report as approximately $15.9 billion.
Further, he provides a wider range of $12 billion to $20 billion, which
represent figures that are 25 percent lower and higher than the original
estimate.
“Hal’s report is an important milestone
because it looks across the various organizations that have been trying to
get their hands around the market,” said Benda.
As president of the building-science
consulting firm Chelsea Group Ltd., he has conducted similar research in the
past to provide values to aspects of the IAQ market. “We have been working
on issues related to the IAQ market for more than a decade,” he said,
pointing out that one of the difficulties in such work is defining precise
categories of expenditures and eliminating overlap and ambiguity.
Chelsea Group is currently working with the
National Energy Management Institute under a “major, joint-industry project”
sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to “develop an assessment of
market for [mold and] moisture management,” said Benda. “Levin’s paper is
not going to be the last word on this topic,” he said.
In addition to Benda, Francis “Bud” Offermann
was another one of several people whom Levin interviewed while preparing the
report. Offermann, who is the president of the IAQ consulting firm Indoor
Environmental Engineering based out of San Francisco, said he could not
vouch for the accuracy of the entire report but just the parts to which he
contributed.
“It’s the first paper I know of that gives a
financial overview of [the IAQ market], that tackled this in what was an
attempt to be kind of comprehensive,”said Offermann. “It’s someone’s best
stab at it.”
In Levin’s report, asbestos and lead
abatement is estimated to generate $600 million more than building
remediation for IAQ, the category that includes the removal of contaminants,
Offermann noted.
“Asbestos and lead [abatement] is still real,
real big,” he said. “There are so many people in the business that you can’t
get” an exact number for consumer expenses, he said.
Other figures in the report provide further
insight into specific remediation expenditures. In 2002, expenditures on
contaminant removal totaled $439 million, with little more than half of the
building remediation market in the commercial sector. Improved air
filtration also generated $439 million that year, as did sealing or covering
ductwork, according to National Energy Management Institute statistics cited
in Levin’s report.
Still, more was spent on two other categories
within building remediation that year, it shows. Overall expenditures on
improved ventilation were $659 million for the year, while the repair and
replacement of HVAC systems generated nearly $1.1 billion in itself.